Connie did not fill the void left by Solomon. Hezbollah worries after leaving

For the last 36 hours of his life, he was Commander of the Goods Army, Iranian General Qasem CholaimaniA meeting with Hezbollah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, on January 2, 2020, after landing from Damascus, Tehran.

For more than three hours, the two discussed Iraq’s progress, and a Hezbollah member said the goal of the talks was to help coordinate the work of Iranian-backed armed groups in the region to prepare them for any confrontation with the United States.

Political and military strikes

Since his death, Iranian militants have stumbled on the region and come under political “attacks”, especially since the presidency of the Mustafa al-Qasimi government in Iraq, and militarily, especially in Syria, where Israel has carried out a number of unprovoked attacks against its bases.

But many wondered about the role of the largest organization in the Iranian arsenal, which, since Lebanese Hezbollah, especially party leader Hassan Nazareth pointed out in his speech after the assassination of the “architect” of the Iranian expansion in the region, especially after the assassination of Solaimani, asked for support, or status, after the inauguration of Solaimani. We no longer need to send representatives to Iran to explain the situation or difficulties. He always came to us and came very close. “

In the aftermath of Solomon’s assassination, reports emerged of a meeting in Beirut to unite Iraqi factions loyal to Iran to organize a retaliation against Solomon, some of whom spoke of the Iranian leadership’s request for Helmonium’s Secretary General to accept Solomon’s responsibilities, but he declined for personal security reasons. He was fluent in Arabic and was responsible for overseeing the foreign operations of the Revolutionary Guard, and he was heavily involved in directing and coordinating the operations of Iranian-backed militants in the region, which allowed him to travel between several Arab capitals.

His absence had a major impact on Hezbollah

Bashar al-Halabi, a political analyst in the Middle East and North Africa region at Clipper Data-NYC, told al-Arabia.net No bell He greatly influenced Hezbollah because he had accompanied the organization since its inception in 1982, so he was by his side on the battlefield during the July 2006 war, and he personally visited southern Lebanon.

“Solaimani is a person who cannot compensate not only for Hezbollah, but for the overall Iranian axis in the region, especially since he played a bigger role than any other Iranian company,” he said.

A turning point in the conflict

For his part, Khalid Hamade, a retired military analyst, told al-Arabiya. “Suleiman’s assassination represented a fundamental turning point in the US-Iranian conflict in the region because the assassination of a valuable Iranian target was the size of a Goods army commander, between Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. . ” He presented a number of challenges facing Iran, the title of which is not the red lines on Iranian targets on the US list.
Nasrullah Aim Modarj

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (Archive – Reuters)

“Suleiman’s assassination is included in Hezbollah’s calculations and the possibility that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, may be the second U.S. target,” he said.

“Solomon’s assassination limited Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon, beginning with negotiations to demarcate borders with Israel, in parallel with stopping its role in showing power abroad, and ending with a” denial “of violating any borders with Israel, he said.

However, on the other hand, “any deviation from the limits of the game drawn by the Americans would be extremely costly. From here, what happened with the Solomon and Iranian and Hezbollah statements, in retaliation and retaliation, restricts any action known as” Hezbollah, either across the Lebanese border or outside. “

no answer

In addition, he stressed that “there will be no response from Hezbollah or Iraqi militants to the killing of Solomon,” and that nuclear scientist Mustafa Fakhrizade considers Solimani to be a more valuable target because he was involved in the nuclear deal, but Tehran did not respond to his assassination. , Because it does not have the capability to “hunt” an American or Israeli target the size of Fakhri Sadeh or Solomon. “

After the assassination of Solomon, drastic changes took place in Iraq, especially after Mustafa al-Qasimi came to power, and he took a number of measures aimed at preventing Iranian influence and its militants from repairing state pillars and seizing weapons in the hands of legitimate powers, including the Syrian border with Saudi Arabia. Al-Iraqi in return for opening up. This led to the incitement of Iranian militants, especially the Iraqi Hezbollah, against al-Qaeda.

Hezbollah women carrying photos of Gospem Solomon (Archive – Reuters)

Meanwhile, al-Halabi said, “Hezbollah’s situation in Lebanon today is better than that of the Iraqi militants. The economic and financial crisis affecting Lebanon and the deteriorating state of the war in Syria are factors that make it more important to focus on the internal Lebanese situation because his incubator environment is affected.” He cannot be “comfortable” abroad when the internal situation in Lebanon is not right.

From here, al-Halabi added, “Hezbollah’s role in the region has diminished because key files cannot be managed in the region that Solomon handles.”

Connie did not fill the void

In addition, Ismail Ghani was unable to fill Solomon’s central role as the new leader of the Goods Army or fill his vacancy, especially with regard to relations with the military branches in the region. This was evident in Iran’s position on Iraq. According to al-Halabi, if Cholaimani had been alive, al-Qa’eda would not have been prime minister of Iraq and would not have taken action against Iranian militants.

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Arrange accounts

He noted that the Iranian regime, “from the top of the pyramid,” “felt” the extent of the damage caused by the killing of Solaimani and restructured its calculations in the region. Instead of focusing on each country and interfering with the details used by Solomon, it now manages the entire region’s files, and he met me. The insurgent leader of the Iranian regime was more bureaucratic than Solomon, who had intelligence, security and political mind. “

Regarding the conflict with Israel, Brigadier General Hamade considered that “Solomon’s assassination introduced new restrictions on this open conflict with Israel and the US-Iranian conflict.” “Intimidation, threats and intimidation emerged from Nasrallah’s speeches about the killing of Solamani as soon as he did not oppose negotiations to demarcate the sea and land borders with Israel,” he pointed out.

An Iranian holds the flag of Iran and Hezbollah in Tehran (Archive – Reuters)

Moral effect

On the other hand, Muhannad al-Hajj, a scholar living in the center of the Carnegie Middle East in Beirut, said:

He believed that “US embargo policy did not directly affect Hezbollah.” “At a time when Lebanese banks are refusing to access frozen dollar deposits, we see Hassan Credit Union affiliated with it giving dollars to its customers.”