The vast and fast-growing pool of people infected with the corona virus poses a challenge to governors and mayors alike in those in severely affected communities. When a virus spreads at a high rate, traditional efforts such as testing, isolating the infected, and tracking the contact will increase, especially as a large number of asymptomatic individuals wander around without even knowing they are infected.
To put 3 million–Plus Perspective number: This is close to 1 percent of the population. This is equal to the number of public school teachers or truck drivers in the entire country. If the University of Michigan football field had been filled with random selections of Americans, about a thousand of them would now be contagious.
Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman told his team Sample It is estimated that 3.6 million people are infected and that the virus spreads enough to infect others. He said it was 34 per cent week-on-week, following an increase of 36 per cent from the previous seven-day average.
Nearly the same number of latent infections among those who have contracted the virus in recent days have not been included in the assessment and it is not yet possible to incubate because it is still incubating.
“It shouldn’t be; it’s too bad,” said the shaman. “We’m thankful now, it’s going to get worse. Unfortunately, a lot of people are affected between now and the end of the year. ”
Separately, models at the University of Washington Institute of Health Measurements and Assessment Rated on Tuesday Approximately Nov.
IHME sample projections continued to rise daily for a month and a half, with an estimated 245,000 new victims on Tuesday alone.
“When do you want to hit the brakes? That is the question, “said Ali Mokhtad, an IHME epidemiologist who is one of many scientists and physicians. “When you have a fire, you send a fire truck. You don’t have to wait and say, ‘Well, let me wait a bit, maybe that fire won’t spread so much’ … we’re already down to the fastest growth. Beat the brakes as hard as you can. ”
This fall wave of infections and hospitalizations is different in many ways from last spring. The outbreaks are now widespread, with 49 states showing an increase in corona virus hospitalization, as opposed to the concentration of spring cases in the Northeast and a few major cities. Physicians are excellent at treating severe cases such as COV-19, a disease caused by a virus This can be dangerous.
But the biggest difference is that this fall wave is still swell, and it has been several weeks. The epidemic follows the seasonal pattern of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which was the worst plague in American history, with the autumn wave worse than the first one in the spring of that year. Experts estimate that more than 8 in 10 people in the United States are infected with the corona virus, even though more than 11 million infections have been confirmed since the beginning of the year.
Untested association involves individuals who have no symptoms, but in the days to come. This includes people who have never developed symptoms. This includes people with symptoms, but who do not want to deal with the consequences of a positive test, such as missing a job or being isolated from their social network.
What happens next depends on public awareness of the reality of the emergency and the way state and local authorities respond to the crisis, while also being acceptable to people suffering from infectious disease.
Despite the low mortality rates, the dramatic rise in infections that began in September was echoed late in increasing the death toll. On average, more than a thousand people die every day, and the country is approaching 250,000 deaths since the outbreak began.
Although the rise of the epidemic was partly due to the cold weather and the influx of people into the home, it was also due to human behavior – in particular, the willingness and social distance of millions of people in the United States to ignore Facebook-related public health guidelines. Experts say it is not inevitable that this will happen across the country.
Local and state leaders know they need to act, and those actions will be unpopular among many people. Is there Small appetite for severe strikes and closures, But current trends in infections and hospitalization suggest that measures to increase may be too late.
The fall uprising is also taking place in a transitional period in which there is no clear national leadership on how to respond.
President Trump, who refuses to acknowledge his defeat in the election, has been a key figure in a large-scale approach to the epidemic. Trump accepted the opinion of radiologist Scott Atlas, his adviser, that it is better to focus on protections for the most vulnerable people, otherwise the herd will allow the virus to spread among other people to accelerate immunity.
According to the country’s leading epidemiologists, the strategy could lead to tens of thousands of preventable deaths because the most vulnerable are inseparable from the rest of the community.
“We leave this nonsense of the herd immune system,” Mogdat said. “It simply came to our notice then. This means we allow people to die. That is unacceptable. ”
Sunday, Atlas took to Twitter to urge Michigan residents to “get up” Democrat government designed to control epidemic against Gretchen Whitmer’s new restrictions. Many Trump supporters have bought into his argument that the epidemic has been exaggerated by the media and scientists as a way of affecting his chances of re-election.
Ahead of the election, Trump predicts that news coverage of the epidemic will end on November 4th. The opposite is true – the epidemic is on the front pages of newspapers and leads to nightly news broadcasts. But there is a cultural divide, and wearing or not wearing a mask is seen as a political symbol.
The current strategy in many states – with patchwork restrictions and widespread disregard for public health guidelines – marks a brutal winter for hospitals where hospitals may suffer within their borders or beyond, which is already happening in Dakotas and other communities in the Upper Midwest and the Great Plains, as well as El Paso.
“We get herd immunity strategy whether we like it or not,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Irvine. “We have a completely uncontrollable epidemic and we are taking child measures.”
Comparable only period The current one in terms of the size of the cooperative affected in late March and early April. Tests are hard to come by in the early stages of infection. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimates that the number of victims is 10 times the official number.
Now the amplifier is definitely lower – it uses model 5.5 developed by Columbia University researchers. As a result, 10 million people in the United States have been affected in the past two weeks.
Researchers at IHME estimate the number of new infections daily by working behind the known number of deaths. The agency relies on an infectious death rate of 0.6 percent of all populations, Mogdat said.
These are models, which rely on continuous assumptions about a virus that are not well known – including how long an infected person will be infected, exactly.
But the big picture is clear.
“We’re going in the wrong direction,” Shaman said.
Jacqueline Dubrey contributed to this report.
