Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin: Trump took in 2016 all 10 states where the CNN poll average will be released on Tuesday. In Texas, one of these states, he is ahead of Python in current voting averages, where his support averages 49% to 45% of Python.
Both candidates died on average in Iowa (47% support each), almost in Georgia (47% Biden to 46% Trump), Ohio (48% Biden to 46% Trump) and North Carolina (48% Biden to 46% Trump).
In Arizona and Florida the averages suggest a narrow slope in support of Piton; 49% support both Biden and 45% Trump.
Although the margin of sample error cannot be assigned to average polls, most polls included in these averages have individual margins of error of 4 points or more. Every poll included on average in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is found to have a larger lead than the personal margin of sample error for that poll.
In 2016, the average high-profile telephone poll conducted at the same time in these six states showed Trump at two (Georgia, 45% to Trump to 42% to Hillary Clinton – Democratic candidate – and Iowa, 43% to Trump to 38% to Clinton), candidates in Ohio (44% each), and Clinton in Florida (46% to 43%) and North Carolina (46% to 43%). This time around Clinton had a clear advantage (48% to 39%) in the average Pennsylvania poll conducted in 2016.
But in each of those states Clinton’s average support is below 2 to 9 points below current averages, and Clinton’s support has not fallen below 50% in any of them. Trump’s support in 2016 was also slightly lower than his current average, but by 1 to 4 points.
The current CNN national poll shows Biden 53% support for Trump’s 42%. None of these states has a high enough turnout to calculate the average based on the number of votes cast after the first presidential debate in late September, even if it is based solely on the post-debate debate.
The average includes polls conducted from mid-September to mid-October, and often reflects the views of voters in each state. In Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, a handful of the average turnout reflected the views of registered voters.
The story was updated on Tuesday with an additional vote.
